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The retreat of US forces from northern Syria opened the gates to a Turkish attack on Kurdish ‘terrorists.’  Driven back by the Turkish military’s proxies, the Kurds finally returned to the national fold and asked the Syrian government for support.

As part of the deal the formerly US-backed Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) agreed to be absorbed into the Syrian army.

 The pact agreed, the Syrian military moved north and began liberating town after town, especially in the northeast.

It has also entered the strategically important city of Manbij, west of the Euphrates,  and  is expected soon to move on the border town of Ayn al Arab (Kurdish Kobane).  Both cities were set down as key targets in the Turkish operation.

 Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was confident about Ayn al Arab.

"We are coordinating with the Russians," he said. "There is a lot of gossip now, but it seems ...

there won't be any problem in Kobani with Russia's positive approach,  as of now." As for Manbij, “ We are about to implement our decision … When Manbij is evacuated, we will not go in there as Turkey.

Our Arab brothers, who are the real owners, the tribes ...

will return there.

Our approach is to ensure their return and security there." Although the Turkish media reported  the return of the Syrian army to Manbij,  there was no immediate response from the presidential palace.

Having  apparently given the green light for the start of Operation Peace Spring,  Donald Trump immediately threatened Turkey with the destruction of its economy if it transgressed unspecified limits.  Now, accused on both sides of the House and in the media of abandoning the Kurds and undermining at one stroke US policy in the Middle East,  Trump has called for a ceasefire, at the same time suspending negotiations on a $100 billion trade deal and raising tariffs on imports of Turkish steel by 50 per cent.

According to Vice President Pence, Trump has told Erdogan he wants an immediate end to Operation Peace Spring.  The statement from the White House (on October 14) said that the president’s  order “will enable the US to impose powerful additional sanctions on those who may be involved in serious human rights abuses, obstructing a ceasefire, preventing displaced persons from returning home, forcibly repatriating refugees, or threatening the peace, security, or stability in Syria.” The White House statement was followed by a Treasury notification naming three Turkish ministers and two ministries that would be sanctioned: Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, and Energy Minister Fatih Donmez.

The Treasury blacklist freezes their US assets, such as they might be, and prohibits any US or US-related transactions with them.

The Treasury said sanctions would also be applied against Turkey’s Defense and Energy ministries.  When the threat of sanctions was first raised Turkey vowed to ignore them.

 Speaking in Baku on October 15, after Trump’s announcement, Erdogan insisted that Turkey would continue its operation until all goals had been achieved.

The EU has also condemned the Turkish operation, with members agreeing to halt arms sales,  while stopping short of declaring a formal embargo.

In a clear reference to Turkish plans to build a city for Syrian refugees on the Syrian side of the border, the EU has also said it would give Turkey no assistance for development projects beyond its borders.  Turkish special forces but not regular ground troops are involved in operation ‘Peace Spring.’ The Turkish advance is spearheaded by a proxy force tagged the ‘Syrian National Army,’ a rinsed version of the Free Syrian Army, consisting of about 14,000 men, many of them former fighters with the takfiri groups charged by their external backers with bringing down the Syrian government.   According to the London Daily Telegraph, “national army [sic.] fighters sometimes use the language of Islamic extremists on social media, referring to themselves as ‘soldiers of the caliph’ and promising to fight ‘God’s enemies, atheists and those filthy Arab infidels beside them.” This ‘national army’ was formed from a number of Turkish-backed factions, including the Sultan Murad Division, the Hamza division and the Ahrar al Sharqiyya group, some of whose members had formerly fought with Ahrar al Sham, one of the most violent groups in Syria, responsible for the massacre of Alawis amongst other atrocities.

Entering Afrin in 2018, the Turkish-backed ‘Free Syrian Army’ – as it was then known –   was accused of committing war crimes, including the mutilation of the bodies of Kurdish fighters,  the destruction of Yazidi places of worship and the forced conversion of Yazidis.

 While Turkey intended the ‘Syrian National Army’ to be a more disciplined force, its proxies are again committing what are clearly war crimes.   On October 12, these ‘rebel fighters,’ as the media calls them, stopped an SUV travelling between Qamishli and Manbij.  The passengers, Hevrin Khalaf, the Secretary-General of the Future Syrian Party and an assistant, were taken out and shot by the side of the road.    CNN reported other atrocities at the hands of the ‘rebels.’  Videos show a number of men, one with his hands bound behind his back, being shot by the roadside to cries of “Allahu Akbar” and “Pigs, prisoners – kill them.” In one clip a man shouts “Film me shooting him with an assault rifle” (‘Kurdish politician and 10 others killed by ‘Turkish-backed militia’ in Syria,’ CNN, October 13).

  The ‘rebels’ also stand accused of releasing Islamic State prisoners from prisons abandoned by the SDF, notably at Tal Abyad.   Turkey’s counter claim that the prison was empty because the YPG emptied it with the aim of creating chaos in the region has been denied by US sources.

(Lara Seligman ‘Turkish-backed Forces Are Freeing Islamic State Prisoners,’ Foreign Policy, October 14).

  The advances of Turkey’s proxies are being covered by air attacks and heavy artillery barrages.  France 24 reported that an air attack on a convoy near the town of Ras al Ayn killed three Kurdish fighters and six civilians, including a Syrian Kurdish journalist.  Two French journalists were injured.  An estimated 130,000 Syrians have fled from towns and villages as the Turkish army’s proxies advance.  In the wake of the abrupt US withdrawal, security at prison camps for Islamic State fighters and their families is collapsing, with nearly 900 foreign nationals breaking out of the Ain Issa camp, in northern Raqqa (since October 14 the town and presumably the camp is now under the control of the Syrian army).

 To the west of the Raqqa governorate the Syrian army has also entered Al-Tabaqa city and taken control of Tabaqa airport.

On the other side of the border, at least 18 Turkish civilians, including a nine months old baby, have been killed by heavy Kurdish shelling of towns and villages, infuriating the local people and strengthening popular support for the Turkish army’s offensive.

Between October 11-14 alone, 11 civilians were killed from the south of Suruc, facing Ayn al Arab (Kobane) just over the border, to Nusaybin further east.  Internationally, operation ‘Peace Spring’ has been widely condemned, by the same governments and media commentators, however, that have supported the attack on Syria all along.

 Even now their concern is for the Kurds – seven to 10 per cent of thel Syrian population - and not for Syria.

 Their hypocrisy would be monumental were it not unexceptional.

  Hungary is a European exception in understanding Turkey’s position but even the president of Turkish North Cyprus, Mustafa Akinci, has called for dialogue and diplomacy, saying “Even if we call it Peace Spring it is blood that is spilling and not water.” The central figure in this imbroglio now is Vladimir Putin, who made no apparent attempt to block the Turkish operation, while saying he did not support it.  Putin plays a long game, often with frustrating side effects for Syria, but he has been consistent in his support for Syria’s territorial integrity, for the right of its people to choose their future and consistent also in his opposition to the illegal presence of armed forces.

  The US still has its base at Tanf, close to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders, and may decide to stay there as part of its anti-Iranian strategy.

However, its overall position in Syria would seem to be in a state of terminal collapse.  Demands for a complete withdrawal would have widespread public support in the US, despite the gnashing of teeth of those who will choke on the victory accruing to Russia, Iran and Syria.

Much depends now on how Turkey will respond.

Vice-President Fuat Oktay has insisted Turkey will not declare a ceasefire and neither will it negotiate with the Syrian Kurds or the Syrian government.

“You cannot talk or negotiate with terrorists … it’s unrealistic and I wish they [Europe/NATO partners] would understand that.” At the same time, Pence, before setting off for Ankara, called on Turkey to “stand down, end the violence and come to the negotiating table … the US is simply not going to tolerate Turkey’s invasion in Syria any longer.” Coming from a government whose forces are in Syria illegally, and whose violence Syrians have had to tolerate, this would at the least seem a bit rich.

For the moment Erdogan appears prepared to double-down.

Thus, the violence will continue.

Perhaps there will be a standoff between the Turkish and Syrian armies.  At some point, however, Putin is likely to enter the picture as the ringmaster seeking a diplomatic end to the fighting and the negotiated withdrawal of all foreign forces.  Putin, and only Putin, can steer Erdogan towards a negotiated settlement, most likely through a face-saving accommodation that emphasises the need to respect Turkey’s security concerns in Syria’s north.

  After eight long years, is the Syrian end game finally coming into sight?   

Original Article Source: American Herald Tribune | Published on Wednesday, 16 October 2019 00:00 (about 1626 days ago)